By Andrew Chong /
As the last one-third of the season approaches, some big questions in the NHL will soon have answers. Hockey Now’s Danny Beck and I weigh in with our humble predictions.
NHL DRAFT: Who ends up with the first pick?
In the NHL’s draft lottery format, the last place team in the league has about a 50-50 chance of winning the first overall pick. As it stands following Jan. 26 games, the Edmonton Oilers (38 points) and Carolina Hurricanes (39 points) are battling it out first dead last. And the Oilers are making a strong push for stay in last with a 1-16-2 record since Dec. 15 and a pair of long-term injuries to support the cause (Khabibulin, Hemsky). The Bruins (with a pick acquired from the Leafs in the Phil Kessel deal), Jackets, and Lightning are also currently in the equation and could end up with the first pick with some lottery luck.
The winning team will have some nice options: Windsor Spitfires forward, Taylor Hall (widely considered the top prospect); Plymouth Whalers forward, Tyler Seguin (OHL points leader); and Spitfires defenceman, Cam Fowler (2010 World Junior gold medalist and OHL plus-minus leader among ‘91-born players).
AC: The Hurricanes are actually 6-5-0 in their last 11 games while the Oilers continue to plummet. I’ll take Edmonton to finish last, win the lottery, and make the safe, fan-friendly pick in Taylor Hall.
DB: Since the lottery began, the last place team has only won the lottery a few times. I say Boston wins the lottery with the pick they acquired from the Leafs in the Kessel deal (nice move, Burke).
SCORING RACE: Can Henrik hang on?
Vancouver Canuck Henrik Sedin is on top of the mountain for the moment; but Washington’s Alex Ovechkin (who missed eight games due to injury) is scoring at a higher rate‚Äî1.59 points per game compared to Henrik’s 1.46. Mathematically, Henrik is on pace to finish the season with 120 points to Ovechkin’s 118.
San Jose’s Joe Thornton is right there and has two linemates with him (Heatley and Marleau) in the 55-plus-point realm.
Sidney Crosby is scoring at the same rate as Thornton (1.26 points per game) and is have a breakout year and is on pace for 51 goals.
AC: Henrik’s doesn’t seem to care about the scoring race. And he’s come out of nowhere to lead the league. Perhaps that lack of pressure on himself and the lack of an Ovechkin-like microscope will allow Henrik to just continue to play hockey and not be sidetracked by the Art Ross hoopla.
With all that in mind, Ovechkin is still Ovechkin and the Caps play in a much weaker conference.
I’ll take Henrik to finish second with Ovechkin edging him out for the Art Ross.
DB: The main thing Henrik has going for him is his lack of injury history. I just can’t bet against Ovechkin though. I say Hank tanks and finishes fifth.
NHL PLAYOFFS: Who’s in and who’s out?
Despite Philadelphia’s off-season acquisition of Chris Pronger to a roster that already had guys like Richards, Carter, Gagne, Briere, and Timonen, the Flyers are in trouble in the East. It certainly doesn’t help that neither Ray Emery nor Brian Boucher is among the top 30 goalies in the league in save percentage. If the playoffs started now, Philly would be in‚Äîbut barely. The sixth place Flyers are tied or within one point of the Rangers, Panthers, Canadiens, Bruins, Thrashers, and Islanders. Even the Lightning are just three points back.
In the West, the 2009 Conference champion Detroit Red Wings are clinging to eighth with Calgary, Dallas, and Anaheim out of the top eight, while four teams who missed the ‘09 post-season are in: Colorado, Nashville, Phoenix, and Los Angeles.
AC: The Wings will get in on the strength of their high-end vets and the return of Johan Franzen. The Flames and Preds snap out of their losing streaks and claim spots at L.A.’s expense. In the east, the struggling Rangers will continue to fall off and the Bruins will make good with their games-in-hand.
DB: As much as I want the Isles to be in, I say that at some point around Game 60, they will go on a 10-game struggle while Philly hangs. Anaheim and Detroit will charge hard and force two of L.A., Phoenix and Calgary out of the playoffs.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Who wins the Calder?
The Avs’ Matt Duchene leads all rookies in points, the Isles’ John Tavares leads all rookies in goals, and the Sabres’ Tyler Myers leads all rookies in plus-minus and ice time.
It’s hard to believe all three of these guys could be playing Major Junior this year considering the impact they are having at the NHL-level.
AC: I give the final nod to Myers based on how difficult it is to transition to the National Hockey League as a young defenceman, the massive minutes he plays, and the fact that the Sabres are near the top of the Eastern Conference
DB: No chance a D-man in Buffalo wins it. Tavares has the media on side‚Äîand the New York spotlight. As long as he finishes strong, the Calder is J.T.’s to lose.
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